Quiet Week/Keeping an Eye on the Tropics/El Niño

It has been a relatively quiet week so far weather-wise, which is certainly something we can all enjoy and take. 

However, that will likely change as we move through the rest of the fall season and slowly approach winter, as the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) predicts that an El Niño pattern will be in place during much of this winter across the U.S.

So how will this affect the weather? Well, it's a bit complicated, especially since we are still a couple months away from the start of the winter season. Still, there are some generalizations regarding the impact this pattern will have on our weather.


Image by NOAA

As shown in the map above, there will be some differences in average temperatures experienced in various regions of the U.S. The northern half of the country will most likely see above-average temperatures for much of the winter, while the southern half may see an equal chance of above, near, and below-average temperatures.


Image by NOAA

Aside from temperatures though, there will also be differences with how much precipitation will occur throughout the U.S. As shown in the second map, precipitation is expected to be above-average for much of the South (although this may very well be unlikely to happen, this could mean that some areas in the South can see some wintry weather and/or snowfall). Some areas in the North, particularly in parts of the Midwest and Northwest, will likely see below-average precipitation.

NHC forecast cone and warnings for Tammy as of 5 pm EDT on October 19 (Image by NHC/NOAA)

As we slowly but surely approach the end of the 2023 Hurricane Season, there is still some trouble brewing in the tropics. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Tammy was recently named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of 5 pm EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Tammy is located just north of the Leeward Islands, where tropical storm conditions are occurring. Tammy is expected to move in a northwesterly fashion for the remainder of the week before slowly curving towards the northeast as a hurricane. Thankfully, Tammy is not expected to bring direct impacts to the U.S., however, those in the Leeward Islands and Lesser Antilles need to monitor the storm as those areas are going to and will continue to experience impacts now through the weekend.

 

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